a paradox...fermi...and an equation....I love this one

"If they existed, they would be here." ---Enrico Fermi

Stated in a logical statement...if P...then Q. Wow, now that is something to ponder. And ponder someone did. His name is Frank Drake, who first thought (as a good scientist would)...what are the odds? Well of course you know that Scientists are really odds makers, which of course makes them a little odd...I digress...

Drake's equation goes like this...

N = (R_s)(f_p)(n_p)(f_b)(f_i)(f_c)(L_c)
"where R_s is the rate of star formation in the Galaxy, f_p is the fraction
of those stars with planetary systems, n_p is the mean number of planets
suitable for life per planetary system, f_b is the fraction of those plan-
ets suitable for life on which life actually developed, f_i is the fraction
of those planets with life on which intelligent organisms have evolved, f_c
is the fraction of those intelligent species that have developed communica-
tative civilizations, and L_c is the mean lifetime of those civilizations.
The first three factors are essentially astronomical in nature, the next
two are biological, and the last two are sociological. We are able to make
some educated estimates regarding the astronomical factors, we may be on
shaky ground with the biological ones, and we are almost playing numbers
games in trying to estimate values for the last two."

And it is a numbers game after all...just look at Carl Sagan's assessment:



Well...here is Drake:



An equation and a paradox...I just love this.

So...me being me...had to look further...sort of a search for truth...or maybe just a search.

It seems to me that the Drake equation does not examine enough variables. The formula relies on 'stabs in the dark.' This makes it highly imprecise and unscientific. The margin of error is far beyond what should be considered acceptable or meaningful.

And of course would advance civlizations rely on radio transmissions? Ours will soon give up the "ghost"...and considering the lifespan of our technology...this window was very small.

The equation does not take into account migratory patterns. What???? You mean moving about the universe? Well of course. We didn't stay put...what are the odds other intelligent life would stay put?

Well, there you are...and there are other factors as well. One big one...if God is in the picture...what are the odds that the creator thought it a good idea to create other life forms. We are messy...and seems likely that the creator would not think it wise to clutter the universe with us...or us-light. Or maybe the creator figured the odds for enlightened souls would be better...considering...Lot had difficutly just finding one...I digress.

The point is...getting back to Fermi...

Fermi's conclusion goes much further...and includes some givens...

It is obviously difficult to comment on the sociology of a possible extraterrestrial civilization. A fact which seems nevertheless to be essential is that such a civilization would inevitably end up seeking to spread itself beyond its planet of origin. One can quote three reasons for which this objective seems natural:

Exploration
Colonization
Survival

Exploration consists of sending a mission towards other stars once the necessary technological level are reached. There is hardly a doubt that this must happens one day, whether it is by curiosity or for prestige reasons.

Colonization as this is the underlining goal of most terrestrial civilizations since the beggining of times, for religious reasons as well as for economic or political reasons. Unless we assume that other intelligent beings would be more reasonable than us, the temptation of colonization would then be probably widespread.

Lastly, the third reason, and surely the more important one is survival. The lifespan of a star in a stable form is limited. For example, in approximately 5 billion years, the Sun will cease to be the stable star which we know. It will become a red giant that will probably absorb the Earth. Under these conditions, sooner or later, space flights and interstellar flights will prove to be essential to the humanity's survival. Any extraterrestrial civilization will be one day or the other confronted with a similar problem.

Are we the only technologically advanced age of the Universe?

Since only one extraterrestrial civilization could spread in a relatively short time, how is it possible that that we never saw the extraterrestrial ones and that our radio telescopes never collected signals of suspect origin?


But back to my point...Lot's odds should have been better...that being just find one good person. God kept having to lower the odds for Lot to come out alive...so what are the odds that a civilization exists or existed that could speak to us...or travel around bringing good tidings...I think for that...we should rely on Lot's experience...and remember...even Lot's wife was not able to keep her eyes toward the future...instead, she did what most of us do...ignore instructions...and keep looking back.

As for me...well I am keeping an open mind. As for the odds...well Sagan went from 10 to a billion with just one change in the formula...I am thinking he needed to add the Lot factor...

What do you think?

Love,
The Lass